Abstract This paper proposes a certainty equivalence model predictive control (MPC) approach for the operation of islanded microgrids with a very high share of renewable energy sources. First, to make the MG model more realistic, the conversion losses of the storage units and the conversion losses of the power electronic devices are considered by the quadratic functions in the dynamic of units. Then, to mitigate the effect of errors in the storage units’ state of charge prediction, the conversion loss functions are reformulated by the mixed-integer linear inequality functions and included in the proposed scheme. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed certainty MPC is verified by a numerical case study.

Abstract In this paper, we explore how effectively renewable generation can be used to meet a country’s electricity demands. We consider a range of different generation mixes and capacities, as well as the use of energy storage. First, we introduce a new open-source model that uses hourly wind speed and solar irradiance data to estimate the output of a renewable electricity generator at a specific location. Then, we construct a case study of the Great Britain (GB) electricity system as an example using historic hourly demand and weather data. Three specific sources of renewable generation are considered: offshore wind, onshore wind, and solar PV. Li-ion batteries are considered as the form of electricity storage. We demonstrate that the ability of a renewables-based electricity system to meet expected demand profiles can be increased by optimising the ratio of onshore wind, offshore wind and solar PV. Additionally, we show how including Li-ion battery storage can reduce overall generation needs, therefore lowering system costs. For the GB system, we explore how the residual load that would need to be met with other forms of flexibility, such as dispatchable generation sources or demand-side response, varies for different ratios of renewable generation and storage.